Bitcoin's price briefly surpassed $98,200 on Friday before experiencing a two-day pullback, driven by lower weekend liquidity and growing macroeconomic caution.
Bitcoin’s Rally Stalls Below $98K Amid Thin Weekend Volumes
On Sunday, May 4, Bitcoin dipped 0.7%, falling below $96,000** for the first time since midweek. This marks a second consecutive day of losses following a strong institutional-led rally that pushed BTC to a **70-day high** of **$98,200 on Friday.
Despite briefly reclaiming a $2 trillion market cap, Bitcoin’s bullish momentum has stalled, coinciding with soft weekend trading volumes and renewed macroeconomic uncertainty.
Key Metrics:
- Weekly gain: +4.5%
- 30-day performance: +12.8% (supported by ETF inflows and U.S. corporate treasury accumulation)
- Resistance level: $98,000
Ethereum’s inability to hold above $1,900 and declining futures volume on major exchanges like Binance and CME further confirm cautious sentiment.
Tom DeMark’s Warning: U.S. Stock Market Bear Signal Could Impact Bitcoin
Renowned analyst Tom DeMark, creator of the TD Sequential indicator, warns that the U.S. stock market may be approaching a bear phase.
DeMark’s Analysis:
- The S&P 500 shows signs of exhaustion.
- Two more closing highs would complete a 9-count exhaustion cycle, historically signaling a trend reversal.
- A drop below 4,835 (April’s intraday low) could trigger a 20%+ correction.
“A top is imminent. Too much technical damage has been done,” DeMark stated, noting vulnerability to shifts in global trade or liquidity conditions.
Will Bitcoin’s $100K Target Survive a Market Downturn?
Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 has surged to 0.82%, meaning BTC may now follow U.S. equities more closely than earlier this year.
Potential Scenarios:
Geopolitical/Trade-Driven Decline:
- Bitcoin could act as a hedge, attracting safe-haven flows.
- Historical data shows BTC benefits from monetary easing and global instability.
Recession/Systemic Risk:
- A broad risk-off sentiment could drag Bitcoin down alongside equities.
👉 Bitcoin’s price resilience depends on the crash catalyst—trade tensions may boost BTC, but economic stress could lead to a sell-off.
Conclusion: Bitcoin’s Fate Tied to Macro Trends
While Bitcoin’s $100K target remains achievable, macro risks are now critical.
- Policy/trade turmoil? → BTC may rally.
- Economic recession? → BTC could decline sharply.
👉 Stay updated on Bitcoin’s macro correlations to navigate potential volatility.
FAQ Section
1. What’s driving Bitcoin’s short-term price action?
Institutional demand, low weekend liquidity, and macroeconomic uncertainty are key factors.
2. How does Bitcoin correlate with the S&P 500?
Correlation fluctuates—rising during stable periods but falling during geopolitical crises.
3. Who is Tom DeMark?
A top technical analyst known for predicting market reversals via the TD Sequential indicator.
4. Could Bitcoin drop in a U.S. stock market crash?
Yes, if the downturn stems from systemic risk (e.g., recession). Trade-related dips may favor BTC.
5. Is Bitcoin still a hedge against inflation?
Historically, yes—but its performance depends on the nature of the macroeconomic shock.
Final Note:
Bitcoin’s $2 trillion valuation hinges on macro stability. Traders should monitor DeMark’s signals and S&P 500 trends closely.
👉 For real-time crypto insights, explore expert analysis here.