Altcoin season has yet to arrive, and crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen explains why in his latest insights. Traditionally, altcoin season refers to a period when altcoins outperform Bitcoin—both in USD terms and against Bitcoin itself. Historically, this occurs after a significant drop in Bitcoin dominance, which hasn’t materialized in the current cycle.
The last true altseason was observed in 2017 and late 2020 to early 2021. Since then, Bitcoin has dominated, while most altcoins have declined—not just in USD value but especially against Bitcoin.
2017 vs. 2021 vs. Now: Key Differences
Cowen highlights a critical metric: the ratio of the total altcoin market cap (excluding Bitcoin and stablecoins) to Bitcoin’s market cap. In 2017 and 2021, this ratio fell to 0.25 before altcoins rallied. Currently, it hovers around 0.31, indicating altcoins remain overvalued relative to Bitcoin.
Additionally, past cycles were fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts and the end of quantitative tightening (QT). This time:
- Fewer rate cuts have been implemented.
- QT continues, albeit at a slower pace.
These tighter monetary conditions reduce market risk appetite, leaving altcoins starved for liquidity.
Bitcoin’s Dominance Squeezes Altcoins
Many altcoins have declined even as Bitcoin climbs. Short-term rallies occur, but most altcoins linger far below their yearly highs. This cycle feels slower, but the pattern remains: until altcoins hit their typical bottom against Bitcoin, a full altseason is unlikely.
👉 Why Bitcoin’s dominance matters for altcoins
The Federal Reserve’s Role in Altcoin Season
For a sustained altcoin rally, two triggers are likely needed:
- More rate cuts to loosen monetary policy.
- A complete halt to QT to boost liquidity.
Until then, Bitcoin’s dominance may persist, delaying altseason further.
FAQs
What defines an altcoin season?
Altcoin season occurs when altcoins outperform Bitcoin in USD and BTC pairs, often accompanied by declining Bitcoin dominance.
How do Fed policies impact altcoins?
Rate cuts and QT halts historically inject liquidity into risk assets like altcoins. Tighter policies favor Bitcoin’s stability.
When could the next altseason begin?
Based on historical ratios, altcoins may need to drop further against Bitcoin—potentially by late 2025.
Is Bitcoin’s price affected during altseason?
Bitcoin often consolidates or rises modestly while altcoins surge. The key is relative performance.
👉 How to spot early signs of altcoin season
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