Key Takeaways
- Judge Torres rejected the $50 million settlement between Ripple and the SEC, creating short-term market uncertainty.
- XRP's MVRV Z-score of 2.13 indicates the token remains undervalued, signaling potential for a Q3 breakout.
- Whale-to-exchange transactions dropped 80%, reducing sell pressure and supporting bullish technical indicators.
- Technical analysis suggests key resistance levels at $2.65 and $3.40 if buying pressure continues.
Ripple-SEC Legal Developments Shake XRP Market
The XRP price dipped to $2.10 after Judge Analisa Torres rejected the proposed settlement between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The June 12 ruling stated that parties cannot bypass judicial oversight through private agreements, reigniting market uncertainty after initial optimism about a resolution.
👉 XRP price analysis shows strong breakout potential despite recent dip
Implications of the Court Ruling
Judge Torres emphasized in her decision:
"The parties do not have the authority to agree not to be bound by a court's final judgment that a party violated an Act of Congress in such a manner that a permanent injunction and a civil penalty were necessary."
This development:
- Extends the five-year legal battle timeline
- Creates short-term price volatility
- Doesn't affect XRP's classification as a non-security
On-Chain Metrics Suggest Undervaluation
MVRV Z-Score Analysis
XRP's current MVRV Z-score of 2.13 sits well below historical overvaluation zones (3.45-6.72). Previous peaks coincided with price corrections:
- January: $3.25 price at 6.65 Z-score
- March: Brief recovery followed by consolidation
| Metric | Current Value | Historical Peak | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| MVRV Z-score | 2.13 | 6.72 | Undervalued |
| 30-day Price Change | -10% | N/A | Correction phase |
Whale Activity Shifts
Notable changes in large-holder behavior:
- Whale-to-exchange transactions dropped from 15,000 to 3,075
- Indicates reduced selling pressure
- Suggests accumulation phase may be beginning
Technical Outlook Remains Bullish
Key Indicators to Watch
- Chaikin Money Flow (CMF): Above zero line, approaching wedge breakout
- MACD: Positive reading with bullish crossover
Fibonacci Levels:
- Resistance at $2.25 (immediate)
- $2.69 (0.236 level)
- $3.40 (yearly high)
Potential Scenarios
Bull Case:
- Break above $2.65 resistance
- Retest $3.40 by end of Q3
- New all-time highs possible
Bear Case:
- Failure to hold $2 support
- Potential drop to $1.54 (0.618 Fib)
👉 Expert analysis predicts strong XRP rally if key levels break
Institutional Perspectives
Shawn Young, Chief Analyst at MEXC Research, notes:
"The $2.17–$2.20 range is now a key accumulation zone. Bullish Fibonacci projections suggest XRP may be entering its strongest rally phase yet. Should price break and hold above $2.65, XRP could move towards $3.40 in Q3."
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Does the rejected settlement affect XRP's legal status?
A: No. Stuart Alderoty, Ripple's Chief Legal Officer, confirmed XRP's status as a non-security remains unchanged.
Q: What are the key support levels for XRP?
A: Critical support sits at $2.00–$2.10, with stronger support at $1.54 if that level fails.
Q: When might XRP see its next major rally?
A: Technical indicators suggest potential breakout in Q3 2024 if buying pressure continues and resistance levels break.
Q: How are whales currently positioned?
A: Whale selling pressure has decreased significantly, with transactions dropping 80% in recent days.
Q: What macroeconomic factors could help XRP?
A: Potential Fed rate cuts in Q3 could drive capital into risk assets like cryptocurrencies.