Market Performance Overview
- BTC/USD: Price surged 18.4% ($68,000 → $81,200)
- ETH/USD: Price rose 27.6% ($2,460 → $3,140)
- December ATM Volatility: Dropped -6.2 points (58.0 → 51.8)
- 25-Day Skew: Increased +0.1 point (3.1 → 3.2)
Key Drivers
- Political Catalyst: Trump's confirmed presidency reignited bullish momentum, pushing BTC past the $74k resistance. Prices reached our election target range ($76k-$78k) by November 8, with sustained upward trajectory afterward.
- Macro Support: Post-election Fed rate cuts and USD strength contrasted with crypto's resilience, fueled by narratives around regulatory clarity and strategic reserves.
Technical Analysis
Support and Resistance Levels
- Primary Support: $74k-$72k (expected to hold despite potential short-term profit-taking)
- Next Targets: $100k+ (long-term), though short-term volatility or pullbacks remain possible.
Election Impact
- Initial pre-election volatility saw a dip to $67k due to narrowed candidate odds, but Trump's victory solidified bullish sentiment.
- Weekend rally breached the psychological $80k barrier, with altcoins (especially ETH above $3k) mirroring gains.
Volatility Dynamics
Implied Volatility Trends (Nov 4–11)
- Event Underpricing: Election volatility priced at 5.5% pre-event, but actual daily move hit 8.5%.
- Post-Election Decline: IV dropped as markets cleared pre-election premiums. Directional trading interest waned except for strike rollovers.
- Structural Outlook: Potential volatility dampening if Trump accelerates crypto-friendly policies, though legislative hurdles persist.
Skew and Kurtosis
- Skew: Remained stable with upside bias (call spreads dominating).
- Kurtosis: Over-sold; tail risks (e.g., $100k spikes or $60k breakdowns) underestimated.
Macro and Regulatory Context
- Fed Policy: Dovish cuts post-election sustained risk-asset appeal.
- Market Sentiment: China's stimulus muted as traders held risk-on positions.
- USD Strength: Crypto ignored traditional currency flows, focusing instead on regulatory narratives.
FAQ Section
Q1: Why did BTC surge post-election?
Trump's pro-crypto stance and GOP congressional control boosted institutional confidence, triggering capital inflows.
Q2: Is $100k BTC realistic by year-end?
Technicals support bullish targets, but short-term pullbacks may occur. Long-term fundamentals (adoption, ETFs) remain strong.
Q3: How does ETH's performance relate to BTC?
ETH often leads altcoin rallies. Its break above $3k signaled broader market optimism. 👉 Explore ETH trading strategies
Final Thoughts
While volatility may ease post-election, structural catalysts (regulation, macro liquidity) favor continued upside. Traders should monitor $74k support and leverage tools like 👉 SignalPlus's volatility dashboard for real-time insights.
Note: All hyperlinks except OKX have been removed per guidelines.