Bitcoin (BTC) has recently struggled to break past its all-time high, sparking cautious sentiment in derivatives markets. While cracks are emerging, bullish fundamentals persist—suggesting any downturn may be shallow and short-lived.
Derivatives Market Shifts Bearish
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler highlights that Bitcoin futures market pressure has turned negative, currently hovering around -93k, indicating moderate bearish pressure.
Key observations:
- This reflects declining investor confidence in surpassing current price peaks but doesn’t threaten the overall uptrend.
- Compared to historical dips (e.g., -150k or -450k in January 2025), this decline is minor.
- Past cycles saw similar drops (50k–150k) trigger 5%–10% corrections, potentially pulling BTC to $93,000–$98,000.
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Notably, no large-scale sell-offs exist—this shift signals market hesitation, not collapse.
Bullish Fundamentals Remain Intact
Despite bearish derivatives signals, other metrics paint a bullish picture:
- Positive futures basis across exchanges shows traders paying premiums to go long.
- Funding rates stayed positive after a brief dip 10 days ago, reflecting continued optimism.
- Open interest remains stable at ~$33 billion, suggesting no aggressive new positions (bullish or bearish).
Price Outlook: Key Levels to Watch
Two scenarios dominate:
- Pullback Scenario: A dip could find support near $102,850 (historical level).
- Consolidation Scenario: If macro/derivatives stabilize, BTC may trade between $104k–$107k.
While bearish signs emerge, they lack dominance. Strategic accumulation near support zones could capitalize on volatility.
FAQ: Bitcoin’s Near-Term Trajectory
Q: Is Bitcoin’s bull run over?
A: Unlikely. Derivatives show mild bearish pressure, but bullish fundamentals (funding rates, futures basis) suggest resilience.
Q: What’s the worst-case correction?
A: Historically, similar futures dips caused 5–10% declines. Watch $93k–$98k if selling accelerates.
Q: Should I buy BTC now?
A: Risk-tolerant traders might target dips near $102.8k support. For long-term holders, dollar-cost averaging reduces timing risks.
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Q: What drives BTC’s price now?
A: Key factors: ETF inflows, institutional interest, and macroeconomic trends (e.g., Fed rate cuts).
Q: Could BTC hit $107k soon?
A: Yes, if consolidation continues and bullish sentiment prevails. Breakouts require sustained buying pressure.