Key Metrics (June 23 – June 30, 4 PM HKT)
- BTC/USD: +5.1% ($102K → $107.6K)
- ETH/USD: +6.9% ($2,320 → $2,480)
Market Outlook
Bitcoin traded within a narrow flag pattern (except for a brief dip below $100K due to Israel-Iran tensions). A bullish breakout above $108.5K could propel prices toward $112.5K, while failure to break resistance may see a retracement to $101K (trend support) or $98K (stronger support). A drop below these levels risks a plunge to $90K.
Long-term view: Optimistic, targeting $125K–$130K to complete the macro uptrend.
Market Themes
Risk Sentiment & Macro Shifts
- Geopolitical tensions eased, fostering a calm but bullish week.
- Focus shifted to U.S. policy: Trump’s暗示 of a new Fed Chair and rate cuts spurred market pricing (20% chance for July, 2–3 cuts by year-end).
- Equities rallied (S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs), while crypto lagged. Bitcoin’s correlation with Nasdaq weakened due to gamma-heavy positioning and sell walls at $108.5K–$109K.
Altcoins: Underperformed; Solana stalled ahead of Wednesday’s anticipated ETF launch.
BTC ATM Implied Volatility (IV)
IV Trends
- Actual volatility dropped sharply as BTC hovered in the $110K–$112K range (a 2-month comfort zone).
- IV compression: Daily volatility priced <30 for the first time this year; March-term IV (September expiry) neared sub-40.
Term Structure
- Steep near-term (27–28 for daily, 40 by July expiry).
- Flattened long-term, reflecting low expectations for sustained volatility spikes. Opportunity: Attractive term trades due to mispricing.
BTC Skew/Kurtosis
Skew Dynamics
- Sideways movement amid muted spot momentum.
- Short-term: Downward bias (higher downside volatility).
- Long-term: Upward bias (lack of downside Vega demand).
Kurtosis Trends
- Initially flat, then declined due to gamma accumulation.
- Strategy: Buy dips in kurtosis, anticipating volatility mean-reversion.
FAQs
1. What drove BTC’s 5% gain last week?
Improved risk sentiment post-geopolitical easing and macro optimism around U.S. rate cuts.
2. Why did crypto lag equities?
Heavy gamma positioning and sell walls capped BTC’s upside, while altcoins lacked momentum.
3. Is volatility expected to rebound?
Near-term IV remains low, but long-term opportunities arise from flattened term structure.
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Stay tuned for next week’s volatility insights!