USDT premium continues to rise as institutional capital flows in against market trends. Kong believes that when long positions plummet sharply, it may present an opportune moment for a rebound.
The USDT premium refers to the ratio of USDT/USD. Tether Ltd. functions akin to the Federal Reserve of the crypto space—when stablecoin inflation occurs, major cryptocurrencies often collectively strengthen. The chart below compares BTC and the USDT premium index. A significant surge in the premium index while prices remain stagnant suggests early institutional entry. The green box highlights the "institutional accumulation phase," after which BTC surged. Recently, the premium index has strengthened again—will prices bottom out and rally? Kong suggests watching the red-circled areas.
Since August, USDT premiums have soared, typically correlating with price rallies. However, exceptions exist, such as the weak BTC performance on August 15 and September 12, which Kong attributes to low long-position volumes during those periods.
July 29 and October 24 saw breakdowns followed by massive liquidations of long positions, after which prices bottomed and rebounded (red circles). Currently, flat futures funding rates indicate a consolidation phase. A breakdown triggering long-position liquidations may create short-term buying opportunities.
Market Analysis
BTC
- USDC issuance of 2.5 million supports prices.
- Daily chart maintains a downtrend channel with lower highs along the moving average.
- Short-term MACD shows repeated bullish divergences amid oversold conditions, awaiting a spike-and-bottom pattern.
- Weak volume forms a new consolidation range—trade key daily spike levels to reduce cost basis.
Resistance: 8535, 8598, 8735
Support: 8432, 8352, 8234
EOS
- Price retests upper range resistance, confirming bearish reversal.
- Short-term bullish divergence forms, with weak volume indicating consolidation. MACD nears zero axis; await further basing.
Resistance: 3.42, 3.47, 3.52
Support: 3.33, 3.29, 3.24
XRP
- Daily trend remains below zero axis with lower highs.
- Small spikes suggest sideways movement—hold观望 until basing completes.
Resistance: 0.265, 0.268, 0.273
Support: 0.257, 0.254, 0.249
LTC
- Retests November 9 M-top resistance; spikes confirm压制. A breakdown below $57.2 resumes bearish trend.
- Weak volume implies range-bound trading—use key levels for cost averaging.
Resistance: 58.6, 59.6, 62.3
Support: 57.6, 57.2, 56.3
ETH
- Daily downtrend continues with lower highs. Retesting resistance led to pullback; breach of $178.7 may accelerate declines.
- Spikes and weak volume signal consolidation. MACD at zero axis—trade range-bound.
Resistance: 183.2, 184.7, 188.2
Support: 180.3, 178.7, 176.5
BCH
- Moves in tandem with majors. Small spikes suggest equilibrium—wait for basing.
Resistance: 267.5, 271.2, 274.4
Support: 261.7, 259.4, 256.3
Altcoins
ENG and FUEL lead gains. Despite major coins downtrending, altcoins’ market share rises, lifting total capitalization slightly. Post-consolidation, expect new现货 opportunities.
Per Kong’s earlier "document-driven market" analysis, platform tokens (BNB, HT, OKB) weaken under regulatory shadows, dragging altcoins into correction. Await majors’ bottoming spikes for directional cues.
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FAQs
Q: Why does USDT premium indicate institutional activity?
A: A rising premium amid flat prices suggests accumulation, as institutions often buy USDT to enter positions discreetly.
Q: How to identify long-position liquidations?
A: Watch for sharp price drops with high futures trading volumes—exchanges’ liquidation data often confirms these events.
Q: Are altcoins safer during major coin downturns?
A: Not necessarily. While some decouple, most altcoins eventually correlate with BTC’s trend. Diversify and monitor volume shifts.
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