Technical Analysis (Daily Chart)
Past Month Performance
- April–Early May 2025: Bitcoin rebounded from a low of $76K** (April 8) to approximately **$97K (May 2).
- Mid-April Breakout: BTC surged past $87K**, exiting an **$83–$86K consolidation phase.
Key Indicators:
- Price remains above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($87K and $90–91K, respectively).
- 14-day RSI cooled to ~55 (from overbought levels), indicating sustained bullish momentum.
12-Month Trends
- Volatility: BTC ranged from $54K** (September 2024) to **$106K (January 2025), followed by a correction to $75–85K (March–April 2025).
- Moving Averages: Recent recovery overcame the "death-cross" (50-day MA below 200-day MA), reinforcing medium-term bullish sentiment.
Fundamental Drivers
Regulatory Progress
- U.S.: SEC Chair Paul S. Atkins (appointed April 2025) advocates pro-crypto policies. OCC permits banks to custody crypto (March 2025).
- Europe: MiCA framework fully implemented (December 2024).
- UK: FCA approved spot Bitcoin ETPs (mid-2024).
Institutional Adoption
Spot Bitcoin ETFs:
- $4.5B net inflows (January 2025).
- BlackRock’s IBIT holds 580K BTC (as of April 2025).
Corporate Activity:
- MicroStrategy added 15,355 BTC (~$92.7K avg) in April 2025, totaling 554K BTC.
- Miners like Riot Platforms sell mined BTC for operational funding.
Macroeconomic Factors
- Fed Rate Cuts: Began late 2024 (–25 bp per meeting).
- Bitcoin-Liquidity Correlation: 84% link between global M2 growth and BTC price.
1-Month Forecast (Probability-Weighted)
| Scenario | Probability | Price Range | Catalysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Range-bound | 40% | $90K–$100K | Consolidation post-breakout. |
| Pullback | 30% | <$90K | Fed hawkishness or profit-taking. |
| Breakout | 30% | >$100K | Strong ETF inflows/monetary easing. |
👉 Explore Bitcoin’s institutional adoption trends
FAQs
Q: What supports Bitcoin’s current uptrend?
A: Key factors include ETF inflows, regulatory clarity, and BTC’s position above critical moving averages.
Q: Could Bitcoin drop below $80K soon?
A: A 30% probability exists, contingent on macroeconomic risks or institutional selling pressure.
Q: How high could BTC go if it breaks $100K?
A: A sustained rally might test $110K, driven by liquidity expansion and institutional demand.