By: Daniele Bernardi, Founder of DIAMAN
Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, recently made a bold prediction about Bitcoin. His company holds a significant amount of Bitcoin in its treasury, second only to BlackRock—the world's largest asset manager, which launched a Bitcoin ETF.
According to Saylor, Bitcoin (BTC) will grow at an average annual rate of 29% over the next 21 years, reaching $13 million per Bitcoin by 2045 in its best-case scenario. Here’s how he summarized his forecast:
"Every Bitcoin you don’t buy will cost you $13 million, my friend."
This is a striking claim that warrants careful analysis to assess its validity.
The Adoption Rate Model
Those familiar with my work know the "Adoption Rate Model", which correlates Bitcoin’s price with the growth rate of "non-zero wallets"—wallets containing at least a fraction of Bitcoin.
I first introduced this model in February 2020 at the Quant Workshop Conference organized by Diaman Partners Ltd. It successfully predicted the 2021 peak at $63,000**, slightly below the all-time high of **$67,000 in October 2021.
In 2023, I recalibrated the model and published updated projections in Cointelegraph. The prediction for the current cycle was $130,000, a price Bitcoin is likely to reach soon.
With the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. and 11 firms simultaneously promoting this asset class, market dynamics have shifted. I planned to recalculate the model in fall 2024—and here we are.
Bitcoin’s Long-Term Projection (2045)
Comparing Saylor’s projection with our model:
- Saylor predicts an average annual return of 29% over 21 years.
- Our model uses a power-law framework, linking Bitcoin’s price to the number of non-zero wallets in circulation.
Our calculations indicate that by 2045:
- Median scenario: Bitcoin could reach $8.3 million.
- Upper-bound scenario: Driven by semi-exponential growth, it could exceed $21.6 million.
👉 Discover how Bitcoin’s adoption curve impacts long-term valuations
Short-Term Forecast (2025)
The updated Adoption Rate Model predicts Bitcoin’s peak price in 2025 will be $261,000—nearly double previous estimates—fueled by ETF-driven adoption.
Current Bitcoin price dynamics suggest we’re still far from the projected upper limit for 2025.
However, these projections assume Bitcoin continues to exist and follows its historical adoption curve. There are no guarantees, and this is not financial advice.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin’s growth trajectory remains strong, with potential for multi-million-dollar valuations by 2045.
- ETF adoption is accelerating price discovery, pushing 2025 estimates higher.
- Invest cautiously—while upside exists, volatility and regulatory risks persist.
As Bernardi aptly notes:
"Everyone gets the Bitcoin price they deserve."
FAQ Section
1. Is Michael Saylor’s $13M Bitcoin prediction realistic?
While ambitious, our model supports a multi-million-dollar valuation by 2045, though the exact figure depends on adoption rates and macroeconomic factors.
2. How do Bitcoin ETFs affect price projections?
ETFs increase institutional participation, likely accelerating adoption and pushing prices higher than previous models anticipated.
3. Should I hold Bitcoin indefinitely?
Not necessarily. While long-term holding (HODLing) has benefits, reassess based on technological shifts and portfolio diversification needs.
4. What’s the biggest risk to Bitcoin’s price?
Regulatory crackdowns, technological obsolescence, or a superior alternative could disrupt growth.
5. How accurate is the Adoption Rate Model?
It correctly predicted past cycles but remains a projection—not a guarantee.
👉 Learn more about Bitcoin’s future price drivers
Daniele Bernardi is a serial entrepreneur and founder of Diaman, specializing in investment management, software development, and crypto. Recognized as an "Inventor" by the European Patent Office for his work in mobile payments.